Kazzia and Dettori look the soft option

Lydia Hislop13 April 2012

The unexpected deluge at Epsom yesterday will be welcomed by a Godolphin camp trying to win its third Vodafone Oaks in nine years.

Kazzia, team representative in tomorrow's £350,000 classic, has already done better than her illustrious precursors - Balanchine in 1994 and Moonshell the following year - by actually winning the 1,000 Guineas rather than respectively finding one or two fillies too good.

She benefitted from a canny ride that day, jockey Frankie Dettori bagging a handy position off a steady early pace. Runner-up Snowfire - in common with highly strung fifth Quarter Moon and disappointing ninth Maryinsky, who also re-oppose - was unable to make up ground conceded at the start.

Yet none is more suited by this step up to 12 furlongs than Kazzia. That she was swift enough to win a mile classic suggests she could be topdrawer over the middle distances her pedigree would appear to demand. Cut in the ground only enhances her prospects.

Esloob may have held the edge on faster ground. Since winning a white-hot Newmarket maiden on her debut, this filly has been brought along with exquisite precision by new training force, Marcus Tregoning. Her latest success proved she had guts and pace to match her well-bred, stamina-laiden pedigree.

But heavy rain detracts from her chance - she got bogged down in admittedly much heavier going in last year's Fillies' Mile. Stablemate Shadow Dancing may lack Esloob's class, but has won on soft. Her Cheshire Oaks success was franked by Bright And Clear's Italian Oaks second.

Strict form gives Lupe winner Mellow Park the beating of Kazzia. Yardstick Kootenay doesn't stay ten furlongs, so Mellow Park may be flattered. But she will relish underfoot conditions. Trainer Jeremy Noseda doesn't run horses above their grade.

Stablemate Spinnette is value compared with her length Musidora conqueror, favourite Islington. Hindered by a strong sidewind when idling in front that day, the latter's professionalism can only improve. Although this will be the softest ground she's met, brother Greek Dance loved it.

But Spinnette - second to well-regarded Sundrenched on her sole other start - is arguably open to more progress. Only rain, placing more emphasis on suspect stamina, dampens enthusiasm.

Instead, Starbourne offers the best each-way value. Her three races to date culminated in a best-yet third in last month's Irish 1,000 Guineas. This longer trip and testing ground can see her fare best of the Aidan O'Brien-trained quartet.

Selections for the Oaks: 1, Kazzia (nap); 2, Esloob; 3, Starbourne.

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