Comment: time for action to stop tragedy of Syria crisis

The Syria conflict is creating a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions, writes Nicola Blackwood MP who has been visiting refugees in Beirut

Two years into the Syrian crisis, with more than 70,000 dead and millions injured and displaced, we as conflict observers are at the unpalatable stage where Syrian stories now have to hit a new low in the horror stakes to seem significant or newsworthy.

I have just spent three days in Beirut with Oxfam where I met Palestinian and Syrian refugees who have fled the fighting in the past few months. I met Lebanese school teachers, business owners, police officers, lawyers and aid workers. I wanted to know how Lebanon was coping with the impact of the crisis.

Inevitably, so far the situation inside Syria itself has been the focus of international attention and this will form part of discussions at next month’s G8 summit. But it has to realise any conflict has regional implications as people scatter and neighbouring economies destabilise.

Unlike Libya, for example, Syria is a small country and refugees have nowhere to go but out — into Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. This is one reason why refugee numbers are vastly outstripping all predictions and all resources. Although the £1.5 billion pledged at the January Donor Conference in Kuwait sounds impressive, only a fraction seems to have materialised (although I am proud to say that the UK has honoured its pledges so far). Even if every donor paid up in full, if the exodus continues at the current rate, £1.5 billion will be needed every couple of months just to cover the basics of food, water and shelter.

Already refugee numbers are barely comprehensible — there are 424,000 registered in Jordan and it is estimated that will rise to 1.2 million by the end of the year, a fifth of the Jordanian population. Lebanese estimates show that registered and unregistered refugee numbers have already topped the one million mark — that is a quarter of their population.

So far these countries have kept their borders open. In Lebanon some schools teach Lebanese children in the morning and Syrian children in the afternoon (they have a different school syllabus so can’t be taught together). Many Lebanese hospitals trying to cope with the influx of wounded have cancelled all non-emergency procedures, the housing and labour markets are destabilised. Investors are nervous, tourists are staying away and the Lebanese are not spending. The economy is on the brink of recession and the country still has no government following Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s resignation in March.

In a country whose history of entrenched sectarian violence is so recent and where many have seen decades of Syrian intervention in their affairs as malignant, you get the sense that the Lebanese, generous as they are being, feel their country reaching saturation point. As Hezbollah seems to be taking a more open role supporting Assad in the fighting, the fear was clear, though often unspoken, that fighting would erupt in Lebanon again. There’s no doubt this would suit an increasingly desperate Assad regime, as any escalation on Israeli borders that can elicit a response and provoke solidarity would be welcome.

One thing is clear, however. It is not enough for the UN Security Council, G8 or the US to see Syria as the security crisis and neighbouring countries as the humanitarian crisis.

We are now facing a regional humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. But not only do lack of resources and co-ordination mean that it threatens to destabilise Jordan and Lebanon, but the sectarian realities of the Syrian conflict risks creating a security timebomb stretching beyond its borders.

With the UN Security Council failing so far to meet that security threat, the G8 summit must recognise the need for a regional response to an increasingly desperate situation for millions trapped by a conflict.

That response must address both the humanitarian crisis and security risks it entails. It must be a strategy which is as much about regional conflict prevention and stabilisation, which includes an effective humanitarian crisis response, as it is about resolution of the conflict in Syria. From Beirut to the Bekaa Valley their only glimmer of hope hinges on one single factor — stability.

Nicola Blackwood is Conservative MP for Oxford West and Abingdon

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