UK weather forecast: Frost and freezing temperatures set to hit country on election day

Ellena Cruse4 December 2019

A cold snap is due to hit Britain just in time for election day on December 12, forecasters have warned.

Meteorologists at the Met Office have predicted that a wintry spell will arrive in time for election week, covering the ground in frost and seeing temperatures plunge below freezing in some areas.

Even if the country is covered in snow the election will still go ahead because it is written in law and cannot be postponed unless the law is changed.

Talk of possible snow combined with a drop in temperatures and winter’s reduced daylight hours has raised some concerns that this year’s General Election could see lower turnout than the 68.7per cent achieved in 2017.

This is the first December election since 1923
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However, experts say there is no correlating evidence to show that bad weather in the UK stops people from voting.

Ipsos Mori CEO Ben Page said: “In terms of winter elections, we only really have February 1974 to go on. Then the weather was bad but the turnout (79 per cent) was high, and up on 1970.

“By contrast, for the Blair 1997 landslide, temperatures rose to the mid-20s, but turnout (71 per cent) was down on 1992.

Experts say cold weather has little impact on voter turn out
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“Other factors – such as the perceived importance and closeness of the election – are likely to play at least as big a part as the weather, and of course far more people tend to vote by post, where the weather is irrelevant.”

YouGov political research manager, Chris Curtis, added: “It might be getting extremely cold over the next week or so but it’s unlikely that the weather is going to deter anyone going to the polls who wasn’t already staying at home.

“Most of the evidence shows that weather actually has quite a small effect on turnout, and factors such as how close the election is perceived to be, and how different the parties’ positions are, normally have more of an impact.”

Speaking earlier in the election campaign, polling guru Professor John Curtice said: “Brexit is so important to voters that a spot of bad weather will not keep them away.”

He pointed out that when the country went to the polls in February 1950 a record 84 per cent of voters turned out.

There has not been a December election since 1923, and some would argue that the icy temperatures predicted for next week’s polling day are a good reason why.

As recently as December 2017 snow and freezing conditions led to travel disruption across the UK, with 28cm falling in Sennybridge in Wales and 12cm in the Chilterns.

All recent elections have taken place in April, May or June, with the last polling day in winter on February 28, 1974.

Looking ahead to mid-December, the Met Office predicts “rain and transient mountain snow” will cross the UK at the beginning of the week, followed by “blustery showers” which will be heaviest in the west.

General Election 2019 - In pictures

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During election week, meteorologists suggest that “the more unsettled theme is likely to persist”, with longer spells of rain, wintry showers and harsh winds.

There is also a warning in place over an increased risk of wintry showers further north, with a low risk of more widespread snow and frost and freezing fog also possible.

The forecast adds that strong winds could hit the UK and be most pertinent in the south, and that drier interludes will remain short-lived.

Voters could expect cold conditions while voting in the general election
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Nicola Maxey, a spokeswoman for the Met Office, said: “The unsettled weather is set to continue with rain and strong winds at times.

“Colder weather, particularly developing on Wednesday to Thursday, has the potential of snowfall on some hills and mountains in Scotland and a dusting on the Pennines. There is no snow predicted for central London.

“The colder weather may well affect much of the UK, but the risk of snow looks to be restricted to the tops of mountains in Scotland and the Pennines.

“There are no indications that we would see some snow in the south at the minute, but that doesn’t mean we wouldn’t see frost.”

Temperatures on polling day are also due to be “slightly below average”, she added, noting that Thursday, December 12 is currently outside of the Met Office’s detailed forecast range and that a more accurate picture will be provided nearer the date.

But Brits are being warned to brace themselves for a chilly polling day, as whilst the election is eight days away and the forecast is subject to change, it is unlikely to be mild.

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