Calls for advice behind Christmas bubbles to be published as scientists warn easing restrictions could prompt third wave

 Experts warned easing measures was ‘throwing fuel on the Covid fire’
Scientists have warned easing restrictions could lead to a resurgence of coronavirus infections
AP
April Roach @aprilroach2826 November 2020

Scientists have warned easing coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic and ultimately result in another lockdown.

Boris Johnson urged the public to “think carefully” over the festive period after it was confirmed that three households will be able to mix from December 23 to 27.

But experts warn the easing of restrictions could lead to more people being admitted to hospital and the reintroduction of lockdown measures in the new year. 

Earlier this week, Health Secretary Matt Hancock defended the decision not to publish Cabinet papers on economic assessment of measures. He said, “Cabinet papers are not typically published to protect decision-making” and added that he would discuss this with the Chancellor.

Here’s all we know about what the experts have said on easing restrictions over the holiday period.

What measures will be eased over Christmas?

The UK Government and devolved administrations have agreed a joint plan to relax social distancing rules over the festive period, allowing friends and family to hug for the first time in months.

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford has said the decision to agree a relaxing of restrictions over Christmas was to avoid a “free for all”.

Mr Johnson acknowledged the measures would not add up to a “normal Christmas” and urged people to exercise caution, particularly when meeting with the elderly or the vulnerable.

“We can’t afford to throw caution to the wind. The virus doesn’t know it’s Christmas and we must all be careful,” he said in a video message posted on Twitter.

“I know this doesn’t equate to a normal Christmas and it won’t work for everyone. And it is up to each of us to think carefully about how we use this time-limited special dispensation.

“The virus has not gone away and families will need to make a personal judgment about the risk of forming a bubble with or visiting elderly relatives and the vulnerable.”

A joint statement issued by the four UK governments said they had been working closely together to find a way for family and friends to see each other, recognising it must be “limited and cautious”.

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Each Christmas bubble can meet at home, at a place of worship or an outdoor public location, but existing, more restrictive rules on hospitality and other venues will be maintained throughout the period.

The bubbles will have to be exclusive over the five-day period, meaning people cannot shift from one group to another – although children whose parents are separated will be allowed to move between them.

People aged over 65 in care homes will not be able to join their loved ones for Christmas, and in families where three children live away from home, they would not all be able to return for the festive period.

What have scientists said about the Christmas bubbles?

Professor Graham Medley, an expert in infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions at Christmas could lead to more people being admitted to hospital and further lockdown measures in the new year.

The Sage attendee told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think we’re in a process now whereby the population’s risk of filling up the NHS is really being passed down to us as individuals.

“For other diseases like flu or hepatitis B, the Government doesn’t get involved in helping or determining what our risk is and it is really, I think, for this Christmas up to us as individuals and families to think about what our risks are and how we are going to mitigate them.

A woman wearing a face mask walks past Christmas trees and decorations in Burlington Arcade, London
AP

“I think it is inevitable that if a lot of people do take that risk, even if it is a small risk, then we will end up with a lot of people in hospital and potentially having to take measures in January to lock down again.”

Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at University College London, and a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), warned easing measures would lead to increased transmission and a possible “third wave” of infection.

“Effectively what this will be doing is throwing fuel on the Covid fire,” the professor, who is also a Sage member, told BBC2’s Newsnight on Tuesday.

He added: “With the vaccine on the way, if we are not very careful over Christmas we are really in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on this one.”

What measures can people take to try to avoid spreading the virus at Christmas?

Prof Medley advised people to isolate before visiting relatives, to consider the amount of time they plan to spend with them, to remain “completely faithful” to any social bubble arrangements and to weigh up the risk of spreading Covid to those who are vulnerable.

But he said, even with mitigations in place, social interactions come with risks that “could play out very badly for some people”.

Scientists have recommended spending more time outdoors or in ventilated spaces to reduce the risk of spreading the virus.

Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told MPs on Tuesday it was “risky” for people to meet indoors – particularly when there are elderly relatives around and alcohol could be involved.

“Get outside – we know outside is so much safer than inside, go for a walk, have a meal outside,” she told a joint meeting of the Science and Technology Committee and the Health and Social Care Committee.

“If you’re going to be inside, ventilate, open your windows, make sure there’s plenty of air circulation.”

Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews said that the virus spreads in “enclosed spaces that are crowded and stuffy” and called for funds to be allocated for outdoor community events.

Additional reporting by PA Media.

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