Intelligent London: inside the AI revolution taking over the city

We're on the verge of a paradigm shift and it's all to do with artificial intelligence 
Age of the machines: Alicia Vikander as Ava, a humanoid robot with artificial intelligence, in Ex Machina
AP
Rohan Silva4 June 2018

Intelligent London: In the first of a new series, we break down what artificial intelligence is, how the capital is leading the tech revolution and ask if the robots will steal our jobs

When it comes to making predictions about technology it’s easy to end up looking daft. Take Thomas Watson, who was chairman of IBM in 1943 when he boldly claimed: “There’s a world market for maybe five computers.”

Some 75 years later, it’s fair to say his forecast was a little out.

Or how about the president of the Michigan Savings Bank, who advised his clients not to invest in the Ford Motor Company, saying: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.”

Oops.

My favourite example is an engineer called Robert Metcalfe who grabbed headlines worldwide in the mid-Nineties for predicting that the internet would “catastrophically collapse” in 1996.

Metcalfe promised to eat his words if he was wrong, and to be fair he did precisely that a year later — he put a printout of his speech into a blender, added water and drank it in front of a cheering audience.

Given all this, it’s probably wise to be sceptical whenever bombastic claims about some digital tool or shiny gadget are made. Whether it’s bitcoin, virtual reality or the internet of things, the truth is that only time will tell what the real impact will be — if any.

But every few decades a new technology emerges that really does have the potential to reshape the world around us — like the combustion engine, the computer or the internet.

When it looks like one of those paradigm shifts is on the verge of happening, it’s definitely worth taking a closer look — because the real-world consequences could affect all of us.

Today, we do seem to be on the verge of a paradigm shift — and it’s all to do with a branch of computer science known as artificial intelligence, often called AI.

So what’s it all about? In the words of Stanford professor John McCarthy, one of the pioneers of the field: “AI is the science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent computer programs.

AI: the terms you need to know

AI — computer intelligence, with machines doing things that we associate with humans, such as problem-solving and learning. 

Turing Test — a thought experiment from the British mathematician Alan Turing, who said the test of whether a machine is truly intelligent is if you asked it questions and you couldn’t tell if the replies were coming from a human or not. 

Machine learning — often used as a synonym for AI but actually referring to a specific type of process where a computer can get better at something, often by using lots of data to train the system to get smarter. 

Neural networks — AI systems inspired by the way our brains work, which could help create software that can learn new skills, like a human child.  

The Singularity — a hypothetical moment when machines become way smarter than humans. No one knows if this will ever happen…

If this comes about, it would mean that machines that could do lots more tasks that now only humans can do — and perhaps do them even better than us. It’s being investigated in films such as Ex Machina, where Alicia Vikander plays an intelligent humanoid robot.

Back in 1997, a computer program beat the world’s number one chess player — and since then the technology has advanced rapidly, meaning more processing power and data to develop ever more powerful AI.

That means software that can get better all the time — which is why there’s now software that can do a good job of recognising images and objects, as well as machines that can handle language better than ever before, whether that’s speech recognition or translating foreign languages.

The real-world applications are vast. From cars that drive themselves, to software that can develop new medicines, it does appear we’re on the verge of a brave new world.

Powerful computers are already carrying out the vast majority of stock market trading, while in teaching hospitals in Boston and elsewhere, AI software is starting to be used to diagnose medical conditions.

Small wonder the chief executive of Google recently said: “AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on.”

In this newspaper over the next few weeks I’m going to be exploring some of the ways AI might affect us and our city — for better and for worse.

You might reasonably ask: why does any of this matter to me? Here are three reasons.

First, it’s highly likely that AI will have a big impact on the jobs we do.

Just last year the Bank of England published a research paper suggesting that as many as 15 million British jobs could be replaced by AI and new technologies, while Oxford academics Carl Frey and Martin Osborne highlight the specific risk to jobs in sectors like accounting and auditing.

Obviously London, with our world-leading professional services industries, would be hit hard if this happened, with roles such as administrators, paralegals and bank clerks unfortunately at risk.

Helping people cope with this uncertainty and change is going to be a big responsibility for government and society in the coming years.

And of course new jobs will be created too, so it makes sense to understand how we can best adapt and make the most of the new opportunities ahead.

The second reason we should pay attention to AI is that as with any major technology shift, there will undoubtedly be fascinating social changes. Just as the car ended up reshaping our streets and cities, and the internet is changing the high street and politics, AI could well have a big impact in our society.

On a positive note, it might mean valuable new businesses being started in London and across the UK — and new possibilities for wealth creation and economic growth.

But on the flip side, plenty of experts — such as the American economist Tyler Cowan — think that AI could end up widening the gap between rich and poor, because companies may need fewer workers, meaning bigger profits for investors and senior managers.

Demis Hassabis, founder of DeepMind, is one of London's top AI technologists (Lucy Young )
Lucy Young

Even more deeply, there are fascinating questions about what it means to be human in a world of intelligent machines.

Pope Francis recently brought a group of theologians together to look at the implications of AI for religion, which tells you just how seriously this kind of question is being considered.

Finally, AI is worth us all looking at because it might — in the wrong hands — end up being dangerous.

At a basic level, this type of technology is already being used by militaries around the world to make their armies and weapons more effective. And cyber criminals are using AI to get even better at hacking into computers and defrauding bank accounts.

Smart minds: the brains behind London's bots 

Demis Hassabis: founder of London-based AI company Deepmind, which was acquired by Google in 2014.

The company has created a neural network that learns how to play video games in a similar way to humans, and also recently developed AI to diagnose diseases by analysing medical images.

Tabitha Goldstaub: co-founder of CognitionX, a market intelligence platform for AI.

It aims to bring clarity to the fast-paced industry through workshops and a community of AI “thought leaders”. She is known for calling out sexism and racism — she wants to get more women into the industry and make sure that the robots don’t become sexist too.

Nathan Benaich: a powerful tech investor with expertise in AI who has a PhD in computational and experimental cancer research from the University of Cambridge.

He organises the London AI meet-up and the annual Research and Applied AI Summit.

Azeem Azhar: runs the Exponential View newsletter, giving a weekly overview of AI developments and their impact.

Nikita Johnson: founder of ReWork, which creates and organises summits, workshops and dinners to bring together the brightest minds in AI.

Organises Women in Machine Intelligence events to highlight female talent.

But according to some smart people such as the late astrophysicist Stephen Hawking, if we’re not careful, AI could be an even bigger problem than that.

As he put it recently: “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race. It could take off on its own and redesign itself at an ever-increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superceded.”

That might sound like science fiction, but it’s a serious enough threat that companies and governments are beginning to take action, putting in place ethical safeguards.

So whether it’s the work we do, the social changes unleashed, or the risks involved, the real-world consequences of AI could well be dramatic.

The best thing we can do is endeavour to understand what’s going on, and then lean in. As the Prussian statesman Otto von Bismarck wisely said: “If revolution there is to be, let us undertake it, rather than undergo it.”

The AI revolution is well under way. Our city — and our country — can either lose out from this shift or gain from it.

One thing’s for sure: the better we understand what’s going on, the better our chances will be.

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