When will the EU referendum result be declared?

Referendum: votes will be cast on Thursday
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Hannah Al-Othman21 June 2016
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UK citizens will cast their votes a week today to decide whether or not Britain should remain a member of the EU.

With polls neck and neck, voters up and down the country will be waiting with baited breath for the results to be announced.

Ballot papers will start being counted at 382 venues across the UK and Gibraltar soon after polls close at 10pm on Thursday June 23.

Local and regional results will come in overnight before the national result is declared, which is expected in the morning of Friday, June 24.

The exact time that the outcome is declared is likely to depend on turnout, but the bulk of results should be in somewhere between 3am and 4am on Friday morning..

Sunderland, Foyle in Northern Ireland and Wandsworth are boasting they will declare early results, somewhere between 11.30pm and 12.30am.

However, Cheshire East, Harborough and Waveney have predicted their counts will not be completed and verified until about 7am.

The referendum result will be announced by the Electoral Commission's Jenny Watson in Manchester.

The city will be hosting the count collation system, which is designed to keep track of all the votes cast after the close of polls.

What would happen if the UK votes to remain?

The status quo is expected to remain broadly the same in the event of a vote to remain in the EU.

However, David Cameron has managed to secure a deal to change Britain's future membership of the EU during a key summit in Brussels in February.

The deal includes the option of an "emergency brake" on the payment of in-work benefits to EU immigrants who come to the UK.

The "brake" can be applied by EU member states if payments were causing a strain on public services or the employment market.

The EU deal also reiterates Britain's right not to join the euro, and states who are not in the single currency will not bear the financial burden of bailouts.

It also outlaws discrimination against companies and individuals working and trading within the EU on the basis of the currency of their home country.

The deal also introduced the idea of a "red card", which would allow a group of national parliaments to object to new EU laws in the pipeline.

More than 55 per cent of national parliaments would have to make “reasoned” objections in order to trigger the red card process.

The new deal would also see benefits paid to parents whose children live in another EU country reduced, allowing host nations to pay benefits at the same rate as in the child's home country, which is usually lower than in the UK.

The new agreement also allows countries to deny free movement rights to those from outside the EU who are married to an EU national, and to take action tackle the use of sham marriages to gain residency.

It also confirms the right of member states to exclude people believed to pose a security risk - even if they have no previous convictions.

Finally, the renegotiated deal also means that Britain would no longer be bound by the commitment to an "ever closer union" between European countries, meaning that the UK would not be "committed to further political integration into the European Union”.

If the UK votes to stay in the EU, economists have predicted a knee-jerk strengthening of the pound, although any rise is expected to be short-lived.

Some have expressed fears that migration within the EU could be increased, as a controversial deal had promised 79million Turkish citizens visa-free travel in the Schengen zone this month - excluding the UK - if it met strict criteria.

However it has emerged that the Turkish Government failed to meet a number of the stipulations, including on anti-terror laws, and so will not be able to sign up to the deal.

What would happen if the UK votes to leave?

It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen in the UK votes to leave the EU, as no country has ever done it before.

Greenland, one of Denmark's overseas territories, held a referendum in 1982, after gaining a greater degree of self-government, and narrowly voted to leave the EU's predecessor, the European Economic Community (EEC), in 1985 after a period of negotiation. Algeria also left the EEC in 1962, after gaining independence from France.

The UK is the first member state to ever hold a national referendum on withdrawal from the European Union.

Britain also held a referendum in 1975 on whether to withdraw from the EEC, with 67.2 per cent of voters choosing to remain.

Even Ukip leader Nigel Farage has admitted he has “absolutely no idea” what will happen if Britain leaves the European Union, saying he was not considering the aftermath of the referendum and was only focused on winning.

In the event of a Brexit vote, Britain would begin lengthy talks to renegotiate EU agreements and build new trade links with Europe and the rest of the world.

There would also likely be calls for David Cameron to step down, as commentators have said losing the referendum would make his position untenable.

The economic picture following next Thursday's referendum is unclear either way, but the Bank of England has warned that Britain could slide into recession in the aftermath of a vote to leave, saying there were a range of possible scenarios for the economy in the event of Brexit.

Governor Mark Carney said these “could possibly include a technical recession” – defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, and he warned Brexit could also knock the pound sharply lower, prompt households and businesses to delay spending, stoke inflation and raise unemployment.

The Bank would then have to decide whether to cut, hold or raise interest rates.

Economists at HM Treasury have predicted the economy could be tipped into a year-long recession, and warned at least 500,000 jobs could be lost, while GDP could be around 3.6 per cent lower following a vote to leave.

Chancellor George Osborne has already warned he would introduce an emegency budget of tax hikes and spending cuts in the event of a leave vote, as he said Britain would be faced with "a £30bn financial blackhole."

The impact of a leave vote on the 1.3 million UK citizens who live or work in Europe is also not yet clear.

In a paper outlining the risks of Brexit, the Government warned: "Many UK citizens would want any negotiations to secure their continued right to work, reside and own property in other EU states, and to access public services such as medical treatment in those states.

"UK citizens resident abroad, among them those who have retired to Spain, would not be able to assume that these rights will be guaranteed."

There are fears some member states who are opposed to Brexit could put restrictions on British expats in revenge, for example by curbing British expats' access to services.

Former attorney general, Dominic Grieve QC, has argued that a withdrawal would see British citizens living in EU countries "becoming illegal immigrants overnight" if Britain didn't maintain some form of free movement after leaving the EU.

However, the situation would largely depend on what deal the UK agreed with the EU after exit. If it remained within the single market, Britain would almost certainly retain free movement rights allowing UK citizens to work in the EU and vice versa.

If the UK government opted to impose work permit restrictions, as Ukip wants, then other countries could reciprocate, meaning British citizens would have to apply for visas to work.

It is also unclear whether Britons would still be able to take advantage of the EHIC card, which entitles travellers to free urgent medical treatment in any other country within the EU, as well as several non-EU countries.

The agreement was negotiated between countries within a group known as the European Economic Area, often simply referred to as the single market (as well as Switzerland), and so EHIC cover for UK citizens could depend on whether Britain decides to sever ties with the EEA in the event of a leave vote.

It is likely to take a minimum of two years after a leave vote for Britain to quit the EU, while it negotiates a withdrawal agreement and the terms of its new relationship.

Switzerland and Norway currently enjoy the benefits of the European single market - which allows free movement of goods and services - without being an EU member, but European politicians have warned that if Britain withdraws from the EU it would be "shutting the door" on single market access.

The negotiation process could take considerably longer than two years, and during that time, the UK would continue to abide by EU treaties and laws, but would not take part in any decision-making.

EU referendum campaign - in pictures

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