General Election polls: Theresa May heading for clear majority with Jeremy Corbyn facing probable net loss of seats

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Theresa May is heading for a clear general election victory, the very final poll of the campaign reveals today.

Ipsos MORI research exclusively for the Evening Standard finds the Conservatives on 44 per cent, eight points ahead of Labour who are on 36 per cent.

The figures point to a Conservative majority of around 40, which would be just enough for Mrs May to claim a mandate for Brexit negotiations but short of the three-figure landslide that senior Tories hoped for when she called the snap election three years ahead of schedule.

The Prime Minister greeted photographers with a cheery “hello” today as she arrived with husband Philip to vote at Sonning girl guide and scout hut on the outskirts of her Maidenhead constituency.

For Jeremy Corbyn, the findings point to a vote share higher than the 30.4 per cent Ed Miliband achieved in 2015 but probably a net loss of seats.

It means Labour’s bitter civil war is bound to continue, with Mr Corbyn able to claim enough popular success to stay on as leader, while critics will accuse him of dragging the party further from actual power.

Mr Corbyn smiled, waved and spoke to voters before casting his ballot at Pakeman Primary School in Holloway, north London.

Casting his vote: Jeremy Corbyn
Leon Neal/Getty Images

“Thank you very much, all of you, for coming here today,” he said to reporters. “It’s a day of our democracy. I’ve just voted. I’m very proud of our campaign. Thank you very much.”

The Liberal Democrats end their campaign on a meagre seven per cent, down from their 2015 election result, which will raise questions over Tim Farron’s future as leader.

Ukip is crushed to just four per cent, while the Greens are reduced to just two per cent in a move away from the multi-party politics of recent years.

Researchers found evidence that the Tory campaign steadied in the final days of campaigning after a notable “wobble”, raising questions about whether the London terror attack played a part in the final stages.

General Election Polling Day 2017 - In pictures

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And Mrs May’s leadership ratings fell during a campaign that was temporarily derailed by a major U-turn on the so-called dementia tax, the polling confirmed.

In April, 61 per cent saw her as the “most capable Prime Minister” compared with Mr Corbyn, but that has fallen to 47 per cent.

However, she is comfortably ahead of Mr Corbyn, who came under relentless attacks for his past record on terrorism, who is preferred by 36 per cent.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “The Conservatives had a wobble last week, but have regained a clear lead in the last few days. Theresa May’s advantage over Jeremy Corbyn is also lower than it was at the start of the campaign, but she and her party have kept their support among key voting groups such as older people.

“Having said that, one in five voters say they might still change their mind, so there are still votes to fight for.”

Britain ends the election deeply divided by age groups. Younger voters of 18-34 prefer Labour over the Conservatives by 49 per cent to 28, while the over-65s are solidly behind the Conservatives by 60 per cent to 23.

A fifth of voters say they still might change their mind. The Tory vote seemed most firm, with only 13 per cent uncertain, compared with 19 per cent of Labour voters thinning they might switch. The Liberal Democrats had the softest vote, with a third thinking they might change sides.

Some 46.9 million people are entitled to vote in 650 Westminster constituencies. Polling stations opened at 7am and will close at 10pm tonight. A few results are expected before midnight, with the bulk flooding in overnight to give a clear outcome by the time people wake up tomorrow.

In their final campaign stops last night, Mrs May appealed to non-Tory supporters to lend her their votes for the Brexit talks, while Mr Corbyn told a rally in Islington his campaign had “changed the face of British politics” and Labour was preparing for government.

Turnouts will be key to translating the support shown in the polls to seats won and lost, with Labour’s hopes pinned on a hoped-for surge of young voters. The weather looked unlikely to prove too much of a deterrent to voters, although rain is forecast to move north through the UK during the course of the day.

Election expert professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said unless there was a major storm which disrupted transport links, turnout was unlikely to be affected: “We live in a country where a bit of drizzle is commonplace.”

Professor Philip Cowley, of Queen Mary Univesrsity of London, said it was difficult to assess what effect the terror attacks in London and Manchester made.

“My suspicion is that they made almost no difference, apart from breaking the campaign up and reminding us that there are more important things in life than elections,” he said.

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