General election poll analysis: Voter focus on public services explains Theresa May’s problems

Positive score on law and order: Theresa May
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When we ask people whether they believe Theresa May shares their views, she achieves a positive score only on law and order — not even on Brexit. Her magical touch with the voters may have been exaggerated from the start.

Jeremy Corbyn achieves positive scores on the NHS, schools and education, pensions, human rights and even, by a whisker, taxation. In fact, the Labour leader beats May by 36 per cent to 30 per cent on “shares my values”.

Sir Lynton Crosby, the Conservative campaign leader, believes one must always focus on the “ballot box question”, the question that is to be answered by the voter’s X on the ballot paper. At the start of this campaign, the ballot box question was: “Who is the best leader for the Brexit negotiations?”

The answer to that is still simple. Not only is May seen as by far the more reliable leader, but 40 per cent of people believe they share views on Brexit, with only 26 per cent for Corbyn. But there isn’t much to say about Brexit, and in any case voters don’t focus long on abstract issues.

Blasting Conservative cuts: Jeremy Corbyn 
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So when your manifesto promises to take money from your core supporters, it’s unlikely their attention will stay on negotiations in Brussels rather than the guaranteed removal of pounds from their pockets.

The brand damage to the Tories and to May could be huge: only 20 per cent say they share May’s views on pensions versus 55 per cent who don’t, a net negative of 35 per cent, while Corbyn scores net positive 14 per cent.

Recent YouGov voting models have shown a significant move towards Labour to something near 2015 levels. That isn’t so surprising as the ballot box question shifted from leadership issues to public services and personal security. The Conservatives’ campaign is working harder now to bring attention back to their preferred agenda of Corbyn’s weaknesses.

A few weeks ago I predicted that 2015 Labour supporters who were sceptical of Corbyn might, believing he wouldn’t win, “hold their noses” and vote Labour to avoid a Conservative landslide. With Corbyn standing higher in the polls and likely to receive post-election SNP support, that trend could unravel and give May the bigger mandate she hopes for.

Stephan Shakespeare is the chief executive and founder of YouGov.

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