Brexit vote outcomes: Will there be a general election or second referendum? Could Theresa May resign if she loses?

Theresa May is expected to lose the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday
AP
Patrick Grafton-Green15 January 2019
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On Tuesday, MPs will finally vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union.

But with the prime minister looking likely to suffer a defeat, and the March 29 date for the UK’s exit looming, it is not clear what path the country will take next.

The vote had been scheduled to take place in December but was called off at the last minute with a government victory looking unlikely.

A month later and MPs continue to be divided on the plans, with a number of pro-Remainers calling for Mrs May's deal to be voted down.

Some ardent Leavers are pushing for the same result, insisting that a no-deal Brexit is not something to be scared of.

So what could happen after Theresa May’s vote?

Theresa May wins

This would allow the other EU 27 nations and the European Parliament to ratify the deal ahead of Brexit taking place on March 29, with an agreement on customs and many other areas of vital collaboration.

Theresa May loses and resigns

While the PM has said she will not lead the Tories into another general election, she has consistently ruled out quitting before Brexit, so it seems almost certain she will stay in office.

Plan B is activated

The prime minister has yet to reveal what her fallback position is in the event of defeat. However it seems even some cabinet are not aware there is one.

Under the terms of an amendment tabled by Tory MP Dominic Grieve last week, and controversially passed by MPs, she has until Monday to present a new plan to the Commons.

Dominic Grieve tabled an amendment that leaves Theresa May just three days to come up with an alternative Brexit plan
Reuters

Back to Brussels for more talks

The EU has said repeatedly that it will not reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, and "assurances" on the Irish border backstop were dismissed by Brexiteers on Monday.

There is little time and no clear indication what more the EU can or wants to offer.

Asking for an extension of Article 50

Mrs May has repeatedly insisted that Britain will leave the EU on March 29, and a U-turn here would enrage already enraged Brexiteers.

Halting Article 50

A court case last year ruled that, while all 27 other EU states have to agree to extend the Article 50 process of leaving, the UK can unilaterally reverse it. But neither the Tories nor Labour support this.

Jeremy Corbyn calls for a confidence vote in the government

Jeremy Corbyn leaves his house in north London on Monday morning
EPA

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said on Monday such a motion was a case of when, not if.

Such a vote could trigger a general election but this is very much the nuclear option for Tory rebels and the DUP have said they will not vote with Labour, so it could change very little.

A second referendum

Labour members at last year's conference left the door open to supporting a new vote on leaving if the party could not trigger a general election, something that will be pointed out increasingly noisily to Mr Corbyn if his confidence vote fails.

A game of Boles

Nick Boles wants backbench MPs to wrestle control of the Brexit from Theresa May 
EPA

Tory former minister Nick Boles has plans for a new bill that would basically allow backbench MPs to gain control of the Brexit process if Theresa May loses Tuesday's vote and cannot come up with a viable alternative. But it has so far attracted little support.

No deal Brexit

If Theresa May loses and Parliament cannot come together behind an alternative, the default position is that the UK will leave the European Union on March 29 without a deal.

Additional reporting by Press Association

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