Brexit may lead to thousands more heart attack and stroke deaths as food prices rise, study warns

Brexit could lead to thousands due to the rising price of fruit and vegetables, a report has warned
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Brexit could lead to thousands more deaths from heart attacks and strokes due to the rising price of fruit and vegetables, research has showed.

Any deal under which the UK exits the EU will push up prices, cutting the amount of fresh produce people buy, according to an academic study.

A no-deal Brexit would have the worst impact, leading to more than 12,000 extra deaths between 2021 and 2030, data suggested.

The new study from Imperial College London and the University of Liverpool used World Health Organization and HM Revenue and Customs data to model Brexit's impact on health.

Theresa May leaves Downing St on Monday on the eve of a series of key votes on the progress of her Brexit deal
PA

The models included a free-trading agreement with the EU and third-party countries; a free-trading agreement with EU; a no-deal Brexit without a new trade agreement.

All scenarios assumed an increase in trade tariffs and transaction costs - extra costs that the UK will be required to pay on imported goods.

The researchers also looked at people's average intake of fruit and vegetables using the National Diet and Nutrition Survey.

Even at present, only 27 per cent of adults aged 19 to 64 and 35 per cent of those aged over 65 achieve daily recommended fruit and veg intakes.

Boxes of fresh fruit and vegetables pictured inside the warehouse of Natoora, a fruit and vegetable distribution company in south London
AFP/Getty Images

Under all Brexit scenarios modelled by the team, prices rose. For example, a no-deal Brexit would increase the cost of bananas by 17 per cent, citrus fruits by 14 per cent, and tomatoes by 15 per cent.

Such price rises would lead to the British public eating between 3 per cent and 11 per cent less fruit or vegetables, depending on the scenario.

Because low fruit and vegetable intake is a "major risk factor" for cardiovascular disease, this would impact heart and stroke deaths, the researchers warned.

Writing in the journal BMJ Open, they said: "A no-deal Brexit scenario could be the most harmful, increasing coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.9 per cent (4,110 deaths) and 2.9 per cent (8,290 deaths) respectively between 2021 and 2030.

"The least disruptive scenario modelled, which assumes a free-trading agreement with the EU and half of non-EU fruit and veg importers, could increase coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.3% (1,360 deaths) and 1.0% (2,740 deaths) respectively."

Professor Christopher Millett, from the School of Public Health at Imperial, who jointly led the research, said: "The UK's exit from the European Union has long been framed in terms of its political and social importance.

"But this study shows that the impact of Brexit will reach far beyond the economy and may affect people's risk of disease.

"The UK Government must consider the public health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to the price of key food groups."

The researchers said that, while their study focused on England, similar impacts are likely in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The UK is heavily reliant on imports and, in 2017, 84 per cent of fruits and 43 per cent of vegetables in the UK were imported.

Paraskevi Seferidi, a PhD researcher at Imperial and first author of the study, said: "The UK is highly dependent on imports, especially for fresh fruits and vegetables. These have a strong protective effect on health.

"Our paper illustrates, for the first time, the potential negative impacts of Brexit on fruit and veg prices, intake, heart disease and stroke."

The researchers said the scenarios they modelled are not exhaustive and do not reflect all Brexit scenarios currently being debated.

But they said their study is consistent with previous research on Brexit, which estimated the cost of eating five portions of fruit and vegetables per day is likely to increase for the average family in Britain - by about £2.20 per week for a family of four.

Professor Martin O'Flaherty, from the University of Liverpool, who jointly led the study, said: "Unhealthy diets are a leading driver of ill-health in the UK and a critical policy lever to tackle chronic diseases.

"Staying within the European Union appears the best option to protect public health."

Victoria Taylor, from the British Heart Foundation, said: "Whatever the outcome of Brexit, it's important that the nation isn't hit with a large spike in prices that could make it harder to eat a heart-healthy diet.

"Unfortunately, most adults in the UK already struggle to eat the recommended five portions of fruit and veg a day.

"Varying the types of fruit and veg you eat can make it easier to reach five portions and keep your meals interesting."

Additional reporting by PA

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