Research study estimates that 60 in every 10,000 people in England have covid

The R rate was below one in London, meaning the pandemic was not growing in the capital
PA
Ross Lydall @RossLydall9 October 2020

An estimated 60 in every 10,000 people in England have covid, according to the latest data from the country’s biggest research study.

This rises to a figure of 100 in every 10,000 people among 18 to 24-year-olds – one per cent of that age group.

It found prevalence of the virus was highest in the North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands – but that the R rate was below one in London, meaning the pandemic was not growing in the capital.

The results, from the fifth round of the React1 study led by Imperial College, said that the prevalence of covid nationwide continued to rise but not as quickly as at the start of September.

However researchers warned that the “rapid” growth in some parts of the country could soon lead to an exponential rise nationally, are said it was vital to keep an “eagle eye” on cases in care homes and hospitals.

The latest results, which include swab results from September 18 to Monday this week, show 0.6 per cent of the population in England had covid – up from 0.13 per cent in the period to September 8.

A total of 824 of 174,949 samples showed positive results for covid.

Professor Steven Riley, from Imperial, said: “Last week we reported there may have been a gradual slowing. That is confirmed. It’s a little bit slower but it’s definitely growing.

“There is evidence of continued growth, possibly rapid growth, in some of the regions that are at high prevalence… the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the West Midlands.”

It is thought the pandemic is doubling nationally every 29 days.

The R rate in London is estimated to be 0.97 in London but 1.33 in the West Midlands and 1.27 in the North West.

London is thought to be less affected because more people will have antibodies as a result of being infected in the first wave, and because knowledge of the first wave has led Londoners to act more responsibly in terms of social distancing, mask-wearing and hand washing.

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