Sage reveals ‘low-risk’ options for reopening schools and deems evidence on child transmission 'inconclusive'

But the National Education Union said it does not yet think it is safe for the wider opening of schools
Evidence on the susceptibility of children to coronavirus remains “inconclusive”
PA

Evidence on how likely children are to transmit coronavirus remains “inconclusive”, according to scientific advice used to inform proposals to reopen schools in England from next month.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has published a paper showing models for nine different options for getting pupils safely back into the classroom.

These ranged from keeping them shut to all but vulnerable children or those of key workers, right through to fully reopening all primary and secondary schools.

The group of advisors assessed the impact of relaxing school closures and found evidence “inconclusive” on the susceptibility of young people to coronavirus and their “infectivity”, but said “the balance of evidence” suggests that both may be lower than in adults.

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The document, released today but presented at a meeting on April 30, suggests that younger teachers' attendance in schools could be prioritised in order to decrease the likelihood of infection for school staff in more vulnerable groups.

Wider contextual issues – including whether families have black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) members – must also be taken into account when assessing the impact of relaxing school closures on transmission, the group said.

The document says that “scenario 7”, a weekly or fortnightly rota system, was “likely to be the most effective strategy to make school attendance normative”.

However, it also warns that “the modelling of scenario 7 is the least robust of the scenarios, and further exploration is needed”.

Another proposal to bring only early years pupils back to school was found to be one of the scenarios least likely to cause a rise in infections.

The document shows that the Government’s current proposal for a phased return of some years groups from June 1 was not one of those modelled by the scientific advisers.

A similar model involving the return of pupils in Years 5, 6, 10 and 12 was modelled, which scientists concluded was less likely to cause a rise in infections than readmitting all pupils, but more likely than an alternating rota system.

“Evidence remains inconclusive on both the susceptibility and infectivity of children, but the balance of evidence suggests that both may be lower than in adults," the document says.

The scientific advisors also said that teachers do not appear to be at a greater risk of catching Covid-19 than other professions and children could be half as likely to catch coronavirus as adults – but there is still some risk if schools reopen.

The publication of the advice comes after education unions and council leaders called for the evidence underpinning the proposal to reopen schools in England to be released.

But, in response to the publication of the Sage documents, the National Education Union suggested Boris Johnson was taking a “cavalier attitude” towards children.

Joint general secretary Dr Mary Bousted said: “We are surprised that the wider opening of schools proposed by Boris Johnson has not been modelled by Sage. This points to a cavalier attitude towards the nation’s children.

“The fact of the matter is that Sage has only weak evidence as to what extent children can transmit the virus to others.

Students wearing face masks as they arrive at a high school in Seoul, South Korea
AFP via Getty Images

“The Office for National Statistics has recently indicated that age does not affect the likelihood of being infected. And last week, the Government’s scientific panel told us that there are cases where children do act as the index case.

“If we cannot be certain about the transmission of the virus – and it appears Sage cannot, either – then it is only right to exercise caution.”

Dr Bousted said it remains the case that the National Education Union does not yet think it is safe for the wider opening of schools.

"In addition to track and trace and the case numbers, we need to see regular testing and PPE for those who need it," she said.

“There is a huge disconnect between announcement and delivery. It is not sufficient for the Prime Minister to tell the Commons we will have a ‘world-beating’ track and trace system within 12 days, and expect the whole country – and school leaders – to take a leap of faith with him.

“The Government has made many missteps since this crisis began and the DfE was slow to bring all education unions on board.”

Dr Patrick Roach, general secretary of teachers’ union NASUWT, said the scientific advice would “only add to teachers’ uncertainty and anxiety”.

“The papers highlight the significant gaps in evidence, knowledge and understanding which remain in terms of the susceptibility of children to Covid-19 and how infectious those with mild and asymptomatic cases of the virus may be," he said.

“The committee states that large-scale community testing is needed to better understand and monitor the prevalence of and susceptibility to Covid-19 in children, yet the Government’s plans for the reopening of schools from June 1 are premature whilst a widespread community testing system will not be in place."

Dr Roach said it remains the view of the union that no school should reopen until it can be demonstrated that it is safe to do so

The evidence from Sage was released as figures showed that the reproductive rate of coronavirus has remained the same for a second week – and ministers came under criticism from some scientists over their handling of the crisis.

Nobel Prize-winning scientist Sir Paul Nurse said the Government had been “too much on the back foot” while Sir Ian Boyd, a member of Sage, said acting earlier would have “made quite a big difference” to the death rate.

They spoke as the number of deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK reached 36,393.

The so-called R-number – the average number of people that will contract coronavirus from an infected person – was between 0.7 and 1 across the UK two to three weeks ago – the most recent period for which figures are available.

The rate is the same as the one released last week and remains higher than the previous one, which was between 0.5 and 0.9.

The lack of downward movement is thought to be driven by the continued spread of the virus in care homes and hospitals during the period covered rather than the wider community.

Keeping the R number below 1 is a key goal Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set to allow the continued gradual releasing of the lockdown in the coming months.

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