Victory is in sight but Libya still needs our help

12 April 2012

Not with a bang but with a whimper, Colonel Gaddafi's brutal regime, which crushed the Libyan people for almost half a century, is on the verge of extinction. Bombastic to the end, he had claimed that the two million people of Tripoli would fight to protect him. In the event, they have cheered the insurgent forces as they swept into Tripoli in a remarkable operation that has taken hours rather than the expected weeks.

Of course, fighting with the remnants of Gaddafi's forces will probably continue for a few more days, as it did in Nazi Germany even after Hitler had shot himself in his bunker. But it is all over.

Gaddafi's sons are prisoners, the Presidential Guard has surrendered, most of Tripoli is free.
Gaddafi himself may remain at large for some time, as did Saddam Hussein, but his fate is now for the Libyan people and the International Criminal Court to decide.

Many fear for the future of Libya. Will it now descend into chaos as did Iraq after Saddam fell? Will there be virtual civil war between the tribes and the regions of the country? Will al Qaeda and the Islamists exploit the power vacuum?

It would be foolish to claim that any of these outcomes are either inevitable or impossible. Gaddafi was not just a dictator. The nature of his rule was so personal and so totalitarian that Libya lacks a proper civil service, a functioning system of local government or the necessary building blocks of civic society. These will have to be built from scratch and it will be a messy, controversial and lengthy business.

But comparisons with Iraq are unconvincing. There is no Shia-Sunni divide in Libya, nor is there any interest in destroying the unity of the country. The rising against Gaddafi may have begun in Benghazi, in the east, but the west of Libya has been just as hostile to the regime. The military force that has swept into Tripoli came from the west and from the south as well as from the third city of Misrata. This has been a national rising and revolution in every sense.

It is not just Libyans who are entitled to celebrate Gaddafi's demise. The United Kingdom has a special interest in seeing the end of this despot. The destruction of PanAm flight 103 above Lockerbie in 1988 was the single greatest terrorist incident in Britain's history.

As Secretary of State for Scotland at the time, I had to visit Lockerbie hours after the explosion.

I toured the town with Margaret Thatcher and witnessed not only the debris from the stricken aircraft but the destruction and loss of life on the ground too.

The decision of the SNP government in Edinburgh to free convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi two years ago was unforgivably foolish, as were Tony Blair's naïve efforts to treat Gaddafi as a man with whom we could do business. He has remained, to the end, a vicious and cruel tyrant.

It is a relief that the present Government has been far more robust in its approach to Libya. David Cameron, in particular, is entitled to credit for taking the lead in calling for international action and ensuring that the RAF has been one of the lead participants in the successful Nato action. Nato forces will be needed for a few more days but it is certain that they will be able to declare their mission accomplished in the near future.

That will not, however, end Britain's responsibility or that of the international community. Having helped win the war, we must now help win the peace.

Fortunately, this need not be a commitment that will involve great expense. Libya is an oil-rich country with a small population of only six million. While it will take some weeks for the oilfields to again run smoothly, finance will not be a serious problem for the new Libyan government.

What they will need is advice, technical support and specialist assistance. There will be both immediate needs as well as longer term planning. The Transitional National Council has to become a functioning government in the next few days, the functioning of public services and utilities must be ensured, salaries of key workers must be paid, and a functioning police force must be provided.
Unlike in Iraq, this effort must be led by Libyans. Unlike in Iraq, those who worked for the Gaddafi regime must be kept working to enable the country to function. Only Gaddafi's family and leading cronies need be arrested and excluded from power.

Once these essential services have been secured, attention will turn to preparing for free elections and the drafting of a new constitution. Britain and other mature democracies can make an enormous contribution, and not just in how to prepare for an election. The Libyans will need help in setting up an independent judiciary and legal system, a proper structure of local and municipal government and a free press and media.

As yet there are no political parties in Libya. They will be created over the next few weeks and will include Islamist as well as secular parties. The Libyans will decide the extent to which Islam will be a political as well as a religious part of their lives. As long as they do not threaten their neighbours or the rest of the world, that is their business, not ours.

That is not to minimise the impact of today's events on the rest of the Arab world. Apart from Muammar Gaddafi there will be one other person who, we can be certain, had little sleep last night. That was Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator. Millions of Syrians will be taking great encouragement from the downfall of the Libyan tyrant and will redouble their efforts to ensure that Damascus will follow Tripoli.

For Assad the writing is on the wall, and not a moment too soon. The struggle in Syria will be more difficult and more bloody. But the result will be the same.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind is MP for Kensington. He was Defence Secretary and then Foreign Secretary, 1992-97.

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