Special forces, drones and courage backed up advance

12 April 2012

The speed with which the columns of insurgents reached Green Square in the heart of Tripoli overnight seemed to take even their bolder spirits by surprise.

They got there by a combination of military technology provided by their Nato special forces mentors, basic cunning, courage - and sheer good luck.

Green Square has been given back its old name of Martyrs' Square, but that doesn't mean the fighting is over. There are enough Gaddafi loyalists and snipers both within Tripoli itself and in the towns loyal to his tribe scattered across the country.

The push on Tripoli had been gathering momentum for days. The crucial game-changing element was the coordination of real-time intelligence images downloaded from Nato drones and aircraft.

This was fed to the fighters on the ground, who have been helped and guided by special forces coordinators and trainers, led by advisers from the UK and France.

Pentagon officials have told the New York Times that on Saturday Nato flew only 39 sorties against 29 targets, of which 22 were inside Tripoli.

Drones, particularly US Predators, indicated where the Gaddafi forces were preparing ambushes on the main roads on which the insurgents were advancing.

At the same time there seems to have been a well planned uprising inside Tripoli itself which seems to have taken the Gaddafi clan by surprise.

One reason for this may have been the old fashioned way in which insurgent neighbourhoods communicated - by word of mouth and messages transmitted through mosques.

One turning point of the evening was when a principal downtown mosque broadcast for all Gaddafi forces to lay down their arms. Unlike Tahrir Square in Egypt and the Arab Spring uprising in Tunisia, this victory was not driven by Facebook and Twitter.

The barracks of one of the toughest army units - the Khamis brigade, named after and commanded by one of Gaddafi' sons - surrendered almost as soon as the insurgents turned up, and 400 prisoners were released. It is 16 miles west of Tripoli.

But now comes the toughest part - securing the peace and setting Libya on a path to social, political and economic recovery. After the euphoria of celebration, there is bound to be a hangover of apprehension.

Government, some sort of police, and essential services will have to be put in place - and it must be achieved in days rather than weeks, if Tripoli is not to see the anarchy that took over Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

The British government in particular has underlined that the lessons of Baghdad have been learned, and a comprehensive plan is in place for helping the Libyan people.

It will involve a considerable humanitarian operation, which has been in the pipeline from Nato, the UN and the UK's aid ministry DFID for months. It will require manpower to help restore essential services, including security, although this won't necessarily be military.

Success will be measured by the restoration of supplies of food, medicine, water, power and air conditioning.

Understandably there is a mood of self-congratulation in government circles in London and Paris. But a note of caution is needed: the job is half done and the fighting has not stopped.

Moreover the operation to liberate Tripoli from the Gaddafis was unique - the recipe of drones, special forces and rag-tag rebel cohorts is not a new way of war. It ain't all over until it's all over.

Uprising in Libya: how it unfolded:

Today: Rebel forces now control the vast majority of Tripoli. However, fierce fighting continued outside Muammar Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound, where the colonel was believed to be making his last stand. Tanks defend his position with heavy artillery.

Last night: Rebels overrun Green Square in central Tripoli where Gaddafi made defiant speeches during the civil war. Yesterday afternoon: Gaddafi forces lose control of Mitiga International Airport.

Saturday: In one final push, rebel fighters set out from the town of Zawiya and quickly capture Jaddayim and Mayah. Reports that rebels seize the base of the Khamis Brigade, 16 miles west of Tripoli, commanded by Gaddafi's 27-year-old son Khamis

August 15: Gaddafi loses control of Gharyan, a town about 50 miles south of Tripoli. All the major highways leading out of the capital now pass through rebel-controlled areas.

Late July: Rebels seize towns in the Nafusa mountains in the west of Libya, cutting off roads linking Tripoli to Tunisia.
May 15: After months of fighting, Gaddafi loses control of Misrata.March 19: Britain and Nato allies start bombing Gaddafi's forces.

March-June: Gaddafi and rebels fight over key oil port of Ras Lanuf in eastern Libya. City changes hands several times.

February 20: Rebels take control of Benghazi. The city becomes the focus of opposition to Gaddafi's rule.

February 17: The "Day of Revolt" with major demonstrations in Benghazi, Ajdabiya, Darnah and Zintan. Gaddafi forces fire live ammunition at the crowds. More than a dozen demonstrators killed.

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