Euro vote could be after next election

Patrick Hennessy12 April 2012

PROPOSALS to delay a referendum on joining the euro until after the next General Election are rapidly gaining support in both Downing Street and the Treasury. Senior figures close to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are inching towards a compromise move which would postpone a vote on the currency for about three years.

The plan would be a risky one as it would allow Euro-sceptics and the Tories to claim that the Government was 'running scared' of a referendum on ditching the pound. However, pro-euro campaigners believe a poll on the issue would be easier to win in the months following a possible third successive Labour victory, probably in summer 2005, than it would be now.

It would also allow Blair to claim he had achieved a place in history by taking Britain into the euro and leave the ever-ambitious Brown well placed to take over from him as Labour leader and Prime Minister.

The Government has pledged to complete its assessment of the five key economic tests, which must be passed before a referendum can be called, by next June. Both Brown and Blair have taken great pains in recent weeks to stress that the tests are extremely serious and not just 'window dressing' for a political decision to call for euro membership.

When questioned publicly on the assessment, the pair always rely on the formula that the Treasury is still undertaking 'preliminary and technical work' on the tests.

A well-placed source told the London Evening Standard that work on the tests was expanding and gathering pace almost daily. 'More and more people are taking part in it,' he added. 'It will dominate thinking for the coming months.' Significantly, the source did nothing to dismiss suggestions that Brown could, at the end of the assessment period, make a statement ruling out an immediate referendum but still leaving the door open to future euro membership. It is possible he could add that the Treasury's assessment of the tests would effectively continue, allowing a second statement shortly after the next election.

If this was positive, a Bill paving the way for a referendum could be rushed through Parliament, with polling taking place either late in 2005 or early in 2006.

By this time, Blair would have been Prime Minister for almost nine years and Labour leader for just short of 12 years. With three election victories and a successful euro-referendum under his belt his place in British political history would be assured. Supporters of Brown, who is traditionally seen as much more sceptical towards the euro, claim he would then be equally well-placed to achieve his long-standing ambition to become Labour leader.

Even the strongest pro-euro supporters are now privately admitting doubts over whether Brown will be able to tell MPs by next summer that his assessment has found there will be 'clear and unambiguous' benefits to Britain from joining the euro. Some are now arguing strongly it is better to take a tactical hit and drop plans for a referendum before the next election in order to keep the project on track further down the line.

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